Get 3 CRO hypothesis case study: Exit-intent cart overlay to reduce cart abandonment


We implemented exit-intent cart overlay that prompted visitors to return to their abandoned carts and finish the purchase. Results:

  1. Revenue per visitor (RPV) growth of 6%.
  2. Delivered 8% eCommerce conversion rate (CVR) uplift.


Our client ( is an apparel shopping club with 4+ million monthly visits (according to Similar Web). It positions itself as a shopping club that offers significant discounts and low prices to its members.

Our goal was to increase RPV and eCommerce CVR.

Client’s site had typical problem of relatively high proportion of visitors abandoning their carts without completing the purchase.


Our research has shown that some visitors add items to cart and continue navigating the site without returning to cart. We hypothesized that visitors are more likely to return to cart and complete the purchase if they are offered additional motivation.

We know that larger product images increase conversion rate. So displaying images of products previously placed in cart just before visitors exit the site will highlight product value and motivate them to complete the purchase.

Moreover, we all know from behavioral science that scarcity and urgency are effective motivators.

But these well-known principles work best if the claim is gunuine.

Client’s business model is built on one-time sale with limited stock (often as one unit). If a visitor doesn’t buy a product instantly there is a high probability that the product will be sold out next time the visitor returns.

So emphasizing scarcity and creating urgency with exit-intent cart overlay should motivate users to complete the purchase.


We hypothesized that exit-intent cart overlay that highlights urgency by emphasizing scarcity of products placed in cart will reduce cart abandonment rate, increase eCommerce conversion rate and grow RPV.

We created two alternative variations:

Variation B: Exit-intent cart overlay in client’s current design of cart with scarcity message at the top of overlay.


Variation C: Exit-intent cart overlay in new concise design with scarcity messages and visual hierarchy.


The experiment ran on all desktop traffic in A/A/B/C format.


The experiment ran for 10 days and was concluded after each variation surpassed 200,000 visits and 5,000 transactions.

Variation C was declared a winner with 5.94% growth in RPV and 8.16% increase in eCommerce CVR. The result of the experiment achieved 99% statistical significance.

The hypothesis that exit-intent cart overlay in concise design communicating scarcity will increase RPV and eCommerce CVR proved to be correct.

Actionable Takeaways

–   Emphasize genuine scarcity to motivate users to complete the purchase instantly without putting it off for later.
–   Visitors will read messages in a sequence determined by your design. Use visual hierarchy to guide visitors down the message pathway.
–   Timing your message is key to making it effective. Exit-intent overlay works well in an attempt to drive visitors’ attention on one last message before they exit.

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